Following the conclusion of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a notable decline. This development sparked extensive discussions regarding its potential impact on Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader financial landscape.

At the same time, Bitcoin's price successfully rebounded into the $85,000 range. Nevertheless, the potential for additional upward movement remains uncertain, as this leading cryptocurrency continues to trade within a horizontal range.

Market analysts and crypto experts propose that the weakening dollar could foster a more conducive atmosphere for Bitcoin's price recovery. Despite lingering macroeconomic concerns, this sentiment reflects a degree of optimism among industry participants.

On one side, former U.S. President Donald Trump is exerting political pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), advocating for a reduction in interest rates. These comments highlight possible political conflicts over monetary policy, which could further influence the performance of risk assets.

However, the FOMC decided against further interest rate reductions, and the Fed made substantial downward adjustments to its 2025 economic forecasts. This shift indicates a less optimistic economic outlook, accompanied by persistent inflationary pressures.

The Fed revised its GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%, while increasing its unemployment projection to 4.4%. Additionally, inflation expectations rose, with PCE inflation projected at 2.7% and core PCE inflation at 2.8%. Both figures exceeded prior estimates, suggesting a challenging economic environment, particularly as the DXY declined.

Jamie Coutts, Real Vision's chief crypto analyst and developer of the crypto research product at Bloomberg Intelligence, commented on the situation. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Coutts argued that quantitative tightening (QT) is effectively paused for the foreseeable future. He noted the decline in Treasury yield volatility and its correlation with the DXY's downturn, which are crucial signs of enhanced liquidity, typically viewed positively for Bitcoin.

Not all analysts agree on the extent of QT's slowdown. Benjamin Cowen cautioned that QT is still occurring, albeit at a slower pace.

One of the most compelling arguments for Bitcoin's potential recovery stems from Mathew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck. He highlighted that Bitcoin has historically followed an inverted DXY trend with a 10-week delay. This implies that the current dip in BTC prices may be a delayed response to the strong dollar in late 2024. If this relationship persists, the recent weakness in the DXY could pave the way for a bullish phase in Bitcoin over the coming months.

Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, expressed more cautious views on Bitcoin's trajectory. Although he acknowledged the slowdown in QT, he questioned whether liquidity injections in the European Union—prompted by military spending—might overshadow the U.S.'s financial changes. Hayes also speculated that Bitcoin's recent drop to $77,000 might have established a bottom, but he warned that traditional markets could face further declines, potentially affecting crypto in the short term.

Thus, the post-FOMC environment presents a complex outlook for Bitcoin. On one hand, the falling DXY, reduced Treasury yield volatility, and diminishing QT suggest increasing liquidity, a traditionally favorable indicator for BTC. On the other hand, macroeconomic risks, such as widening corporate bond spreads and potential instability in traditional markets, could still pose challenges.

Given Bitcoin's historical lag relative to DXY movements, the upcoming weeks will clarify if a delayed rally unfolds. Concurrently, global liquidity conditions and political developments remain pivotal factors that could shape Bitcoin's next significant move.

According to BeInCrypto data, BTC was trading at $85,832 at the time of reporting, reflecting a moderate gain of nearly 4% in the past 24 hours.

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