As the day begins, the US Crypto News Morning Briefing delivers a concise overview of the key events shaping the crypto landscape in the hours ahead. With global markets bracing for the release of the Federal Reserve’s March FOMC meeting minutes at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, traders are keenly focused on the potential implications for Bitcoin's trajectory. This morning, analysts are examining how geopolitical tensions, recession concerns, and regulatory shifts are influencing the crypto markets, while keeping an eye on broader Wall Street and Washington activities.

The upcoming release of the FOMC minutes is anticipated to provide insights into possible monetary policy adjustments, including potential emergency rate cuts in the second quarter, updates on US trade discussions, and indications of any efforts to ease financial conditions. Meanwhile, the ongoing geopolitical situation involving the Russia-Ukraine conflict has taken a new dimension with reports suggesting the capture of Chinese prisoners of war, which has heightened concerns about the possibility of a wider conflict.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin remains under pressure, testing crucial support levels. Analysts are scrutinizing technical indicators to anticipate future movements. BRN Analyst Darren Chu, in an exclusive interview with the BeInCrypto US Morning Briefing, offered a comprehensive analysis of the current macroeconomic and crypto environment prior to the release of the FOMC minutes:

Chu emphasized critical price points and potential scenarios following the FOMC announcement. He noted that there is an increasing likelihood of a short-term \"dead cat bounce\"—a temporary upward movement within a broader downtrend—starting either at 2 p.m. EST with the release of the minutes or later in the week when consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), and sentiment data are released. This bounce might coincide with a Fibonacci retracement, where prices temporarily rally to key levels (such as 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%) before resuming the downtrend.

Recent data shows that Bitcoin Spot ETFs experienced their largest daily outflows ($326 million) since March 11. Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook, estimating a 45% probability of a US recession in 2025 but remains committed to Bitcoin, maintaining $1.5 billion through ETFs. Analyst Ben Sigman suggested that escalating trade tensions could bolster Bitcoin's appeal as investors seek scarce assets that can hedge against inflation outside conventional financial systems.

As global trade disruptions persist, crypto whales exhibit divergent behaviors—some offloading assets amid panic, while others accumulate in anticipation of a recovery. Analysts caution that the Federal Reserve might be discreetly injecting liquidity as reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) balances decline, raising concerns about stealth quantitative easing amid rising trade frictions and a Bitcoin market valued at $500 billion.

Bitcoin ETFs witnessed $326 million in outflows, the highest since March, driven by institutional pullbacks, led by BlackRock's $252 million withdrawal and growing demand for bearish put options. Former President Trump's new tariffs pose a threat to US Bitcoin mining dominance by inflating equipment expenses, potentially reducing America's 36% share of the global hash rate.

Crypto stocks fell sharply as Trump's 104% China tariffs took effect, resulting in $300 million in liquidations, yet rising Bitcoin long positions indicate optimism for a turnaround. Additionally, the US Department of Justice announced it will no longer pursue crypto exchanges and wallets based on user actions, sparking discussions about reduced oversight and the associated risks of enabling illicit activities.

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