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In recent weeks, Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has experienced significant price fluctuations, causing numerous short-term investors, commonly labeled as \"paper hands,\" to exit the market. Despite the volatility, long-term holders (LTHs) continue to demonstrate steadfast commitment, aiming to drive Bitcoin's price back above $85,000. The timeline for achieving this remains uncertain.
A recent analysis conducted by CryptoQuant expert Burak Kesmeci focused on Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder Net Position Change (30-day sum), revealing that since April 6, this indicator has transitioned into positive territory, indicating strong upward momentum. Consequently, Kesmeci noted that Bitcoin has appreciated by roughly 12%.
The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change monitors the purchasing and selling activities of LTHs—individuals who have maintained their holdings for a minimum of 155 days—to evaluate shifts in the volume of coins retained by these investors over a defined period. A positive value implies that LTHs are refraining from selling, reflecting optimism regarding Bitcoin's future valuation. On the contrary, a negative figure suggests these holders are liquidating their positions, typically due to market pressures, signaling a bearish market sentiment.
Kesmeci highlighted the significance of this metric turning positive after remaining below zero since the previous October, signifying consistent selling activity among LTHs. The peak of this selling phase occurred on December 5, coinciding with a 32% plunge in Bitcoin's price and marking the culmination of a six-month distribution cycle by LTHs.
Since April 6, however, this pattern has reversed. The metric now stands above zero and exhibits an upward trajectory. Kesmeci elaborated further on this development:
Additionally, Bitcoin's funding rate has persisted in positive territory despite its recent price challenges, reinforcing a bullish outlook. At the time of reporting, this rate was recorded at 0.0037%.
The funding rate represents the recurring payments exchanged between long and short traders within perpetual futures markets. Its purpose is to align the futures price closely with the underlying asset's spot price. When it is positive, as it currently is, long traders compensate short traders, indicating a bullish market sentiment as more participants anticipate Bitcoin's price to rise.
The heightened accumulation by Bitcoin LTHs has propelled the asset's price beyond a critical resistance level at $81,863. At the time of publication, Bitcoin trades at $83,665.
As the market reacts to these sustained buying pressures exerted by LTHs, Bitcoin's price appears poised for a substantial rally in the near term. Should retail traders join this buying spree and enhance demand for the coin, Bitcoin might surpass the $85,000 to $87,730 range.
Conversely, should the accumulation trend cease and these LTHs initiate selling to capture profits, Bitcoin could revert to its declining path, breaching the $81,863 threshold and potentially plummeting toward $74,389.
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