China's recent directive for state-owned banks to reduce reliance on the US dollar has underscored a growing global trend as numerous countries seek alternatives to the dominant reserve assets. In certain scenarios, Bitcoin has emerged as a potential contender in this evolving landscape.

BeInCrypto engaged with experts from prominent organizations such as VanEck, CoinGecko, Gate.io, HashKey Research, and Humanity Protocol to explore Bitcoin's ascent as an alternative to the US dollar and its potential impact on global geopolitical dynamics.

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China has progressively diminished its reliance on the US dollar. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has directed state-owned banks to curtail dollar purchases amidst escalating trade tensions with then-US President Donald Trump. This move reflects China's broader strategy to reduce dependence on the dollar, aligning with a global movement toward diversifying reserve assets.

Russia, similarly affected by Western sanctions—particularly following its actions in Ukraine—has also sought to diminish reliance on Western currencies. In response to comprehensive sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and allied nations, which targeted Russia's central bank and major financial institutions and restricted SWIFT access for certain entities, Russia suspended the trading of US dollars and euros on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX). Recent reports indicate that Russia has discreetly utilized Bitcoin for international trade to circumvent these sanctions. Additionally, Rosneft, a leading Russian commodities producer, has issued Renminbi (RMB)-denominated bonds, signaling a strategic shift toward the Chinese currency and away from Western currencies.

This global shift away from dominant reserve currencies extends beyond nations under Western sanctions. India, for instance, has been pursuing agreements to facilitate oil purchases in Indian Rupees (INR) and trade with Malaysia using INR, aiming to enhance the Rupee's international usage. The country has also explored establishing a local currency settlement system with nine other central banks.

As more countries consider alternatives to the US dollar's dominance, Bitcoin has surfaced as a viable monetary tool that could serve as an alternative reserve asset. Interest in using cryptocurrencies for purposes beyond international trade has also intensified. Notably, reports suggest that China and Russia have settled some energy transactions utilizing Bitcoin and other digital assets.

France's Minister of Digital Affairs recently proposed utilizing surplus electricity from Électricité de France (EDF), the state-owned energy giant, to mine Bitcoin. Similarly, Pakistan announced plans to allocate part of its surplus electricity to Bitcoin mining and AI data centers.

In the United States, New Hampshire's House passed HB302, a Bitcoin reserve bill, by a narrow margin of 192-179 votes, forwarding it to the Senate. If approved and signed into law, the bill would allow the state treasurer to invest up to 10% of the general fund and other authorized funds in precious metals and specific digital assets like Bitcoin. Industry experts view this as a preliminary step in the broader adoption of Bitcoin.

According to Sigel, Bitcoin is anticipated to become a key medium of exchange by 2025 and potentially one of the world's reserve currencies. His projections indicate that Bitcoin could handle 10% of global international trade and 5% of global domestic trade, prompting central banks to hold approximately 2.5% of their assets in Bitcoin. Sigel believes China's de-dollarization initiative will catalyze other nations to follow suit and reduce their reliance on the US dollar.

Zhong Yang Chan, Head of Research at CoinGecko, opines that these efforts could significantly challenge the United States' dominance. However, the weakening strength of the US dollar and other dominant currencies has already become evident. Sigel's research reveals that the four strongest global currencies—the US dollar, Japanese yen, British pound, and European euro—have depreciated over time, particularly in cross-border payments.

The decline of these traditional currencies creates an opportunity for Bitcoin to gain prominence as a critical alternative for international trade settlements. Unlike fiat money or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), Bitcoin operates independently of any single nation, making it attractive to certain countries.

Terence Kwok, CEO and Founder of Humanity Protocol, emphasized that the geopolitical tensions have reinforced this perspective. Due to its limited supply, Bitcoin offers a more secure option for nations experiencing currency devaluation through inflation.

Experts do not anticipate Bitcoin replacing fiat currencies entirely but rather providing a crucial alternative for specific use cases. While Bitcoin presents several advantages over traditional currencies, Gate.io’s Kevin Lee does not foresee its adoption causing a complete transformation of the currency reserve system. Guo concurs, suggesting that Bitcoin will be more appealing on a case-by-case basis.

Bitcoin must overcome several challenges before achieving widespread adoption. Its relatively new status and incomplete development hinder mass adoption due to issues such as price volatility and scalability concerns. The Bitcoin network processes approximately seven transactions per second, compared to Visa's capacity of around 65,000 transactions per second, underscoring the need for enhanced infrastructure to meet global demand.

Despite these hurdles, the convergence of geopolitical shifts and Bitcoin's inherent characteristics has created a space for its increased adoption as an alternative to the US dollar and potentially as a reserve asset. Achieving mainstream adoption will require addressing scalability, volatility, regulatory challenges, stablecoin competition, and ensuring network security.

The unfolding scenario indicates that Bitcoin will play a significant role in the global financial system, although a complete overhaul of existing norms appears unlikely in the near future.

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