Several US economic indicators are set to be released this week, potentially impacting Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Over the past few months, US macroeconomic data has largely shaped sentiment within the cryptocurrency market. As a result, traders and investors are encouraged to adjust their portfolios and align their trading strategies to take advantage of significant economic events.

Factors such as macroeconomic sentiment, expectations regarding monetary policy, and Bitcoin's increasing role as either a hedge or risk asset affect Bitcoin's price dynamics. Consequently, the following indicators are particularly relevant this week.

The first US economic indicator that might influence Bitcoin's price is the March Leading Economic Indicator, which is expected today, Monday, April 21.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), last reported for February 2025, decreased by 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) following a revised 0.1% increase in December 2024. This decrease, driven by pessimistic consumer expectations and weaker manufacturing orders, continued a pattern of negative signals. However, the six-month growth rate is improving, indicating less severe headwinds compared to 2024.

Market analysts predict a median decline of 0.5% for the March report, contrasting with a consensus estimate of -0.6%. Although these figures suggest an economic slowdown, stabilizing trends and a projected 2.0% GDP growth for 2025 provide some optimism.

Policy uncertainties, such as those posed by Trump's tariffs, could increase risks. For Bitcoin, a declining LEI may reduce risk appetite, driving investors towards safer assets like bonds and exerting downward pressure on prices in the short term.

On the other hand, Bitcoin's \"digital gold\" narrative might gain traction if economic uncertainty fosters distrust in fiat systems. However, this scenario is less probable unless broader trade tensions or policy shocks amplify the effect.

The S&P Global US Services PMI for March 2025 rose to 54.4 from 51.0 in February, indicating robust expansion in the services sector. This increase, combined with a composite PMI of 53.5, reflects resilient consumer demand.

This strength bolsters the US dollar, reducing expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, which could challenge Bitcoin's appeal. A stronger dollar and higher yields usually weigh on Bitcoin, as seen in previous cycles when real yields increased.

However, rising input costs and tariff concerns temper business confidence. For the April Services PMI, the median forecast is 53.0.

Strong services activity may support broader risk-on sentiment, potentially lifting Bitcoin if equity markets rally, given its occasional correlation with indices like the Nasdaq.

Nonetheless, tariff uncertainties could limit any negative pressure, keeping the impact neutral to slightly bearish, as dollar strength overshadows marginal risk-on gains.

In contrast, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for March 2025 dropped to 50.2 from 52.7, hovering near stagnation. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.0 from 50.3, with declines in new orders, production, and employment.

This weakness, consistent with October 2024’s ISM reading of 46.5, reflects high interest rates, weak global demand, and tariff-related uncertainty.

Moody’s Analytics and Statista highlight manufacturing's struggles, warning of broader slowdown risks, especially with trade policy volatility under the Trump administration.

For Bitcoin, weak manufacturing data signals reduced risk appetite, likely exerting downward pressure, particularly given its equity market correlation.

While a sharp manufacturing decline could theoretically spur rate-cut expectations, persistent inflation and tariff-driven cost pressures make this unlikely. The outlook here is bearish, as fears of economic slowdown dominate.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 19 recorded 215,000, down from 223,000 the week before.

This indicates a slight improvement but still reflects a labor market under pressure, suggesting ongoing challenges. High interest rates, cautious business investment, and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies likely drive this sentiment by eroding employer confidence.

Nevertheless, despite reduced hiring and economic pressures, the decline suggests some layoff stabilization.

Analysts note that lower claims could ease concerns about rapid deterioration, persistent inflation, and policy uncertainties, which limit expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Meanwhile, jobless claims are a critical driver of Bitcoin sentiment. The modest drop in claims may temper economic weakness signals. If claims continue to decline significantly, sparking hopes of monetary easing, Bitcoin could benefit from increased liquidity and lower yields.

Consumer Sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan’s index, was 50.8 in March 2025. This was a modest drop from February’s reading, reflecting tariff-related pessimism and inflation fears despite solid economic conditions.

Preliminary March data suggests a reading of 50.8, with sentiment still sour, per TradingEconomics estimates.

Consumer sentiment is a gauge of retail investor confidence, critical for Bitcoin’s retail-driven market. Lower sentiment could sap enthusiasm for speculative assets, pushing Bitcoin lower, especially if risk-off sentiment dominates.

Conversely, if sentiment stabilizes or tariff fears ease, Bitcoin could ride a risk-on wave, though this seems unlikely given current trends.

The probable effect is bearish, as declining confidence aligns with broader economic caution.

BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin (BTC) was trading for $87,424 as of this writing. This represents a modest 2.66% gain in the last 24 hours.

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