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In the latest US Morning Crypto News Briefing, traders and investors are focusing on key developments within the cryptocurrency markets as they prepare for the week ahead. With a fresh cup of coffee in hand, market participants can review the latest data suggesting the future trajectory of the Bitcoin (BTC) price, along with insights from the options market, which provides valuable context for short-term price action.
Today marks the expiration of monthly options on Deribit, concluding at 8:00 UTC. During the early hours of the Asian trading session, approximately $8 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts were settled. Notably, Bitcoin options accounted for more than $7 billion of this total notional value, highlighting the significant activity surrounding BTC derivatives.
Traditionally, as options approach expiration, the underlying asset's price tends to move towards its max pain or strike price, which is the price at which the greatest number of option holders would experience losses. However, Bitcoin defied this expectation during the recent expiration period, trading significantly above its max pain level of $86,000. In the minutes leading up to the expiration, Bitcoin was priced at $93,471, but it has since risen to $94,581, indicating strong buying pressure and potentially signaling bullish momentum.
BeInCrypto sought commentary from Bitfinex analysts regarding the current market sentiment and the potential path for Bitcoin's price in the near term. The analysts expressed optimism, suggesting that Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory once it clears resistance levels defined by option-based indicators. They noted that many traders have been rolling over their positions to higher strike prices, particularly targeting $95,000 and $100,000, which have seen increased call open interest for the end of April and May expirations. This behavior aligns with the broader market sentiment, as Deribit analysts pointed out that the highest open interest for BTC options is clustered around the $100,000 strike price, reflecting a strong belief among market participants that Bitcoin could reach this milestone in the near future.
The Bitfinex analysts also concurred with BeInCrypto's reporting, which highlighted that the cumulative delta (CD) across BTC and related ETF options on Deribit had reached $9 billion. This figure underscores the growing interest in both spot markets and ETFs, driven by rising inflows and increasing demand from institutional investors. These bullish bets are consistent with sentiments previously discussed in earlier editions of the US Crypto News Briefing.
Despite the positive outlook, some market observers have cautioned against excessive optimism. Innokenty Isers, CEO of Paybis Exchange, emphasized the need for caution amidst the rising tide of bullish predictions. Additionally, the Federal Reserve has expressed concerns over potential inflationary pressures stemming from geopolitical tensions, such as trade disputes. Nonetheless, Isers acknowledged evidence of sustained accumulation of BTC by institutional entities and large market players, suggesting confidence in the long-term viability of Bitcoin.
A recent chart reveals that the top traded Bitcoin options over the past 24 hours are call options with strike prices of $95,000 and $100,000, set to expire on May 2. This data further supports the notion that market participants are positioning themselves for a potential breakout above these levels, while simultaneously preparing for volatility in the lead-up to the expiration event. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, traders will closely monitor these dynamics to navigate the opportunities and risks inherent in the volatile landscape.
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