Over the past week of April, XRP saw a 7% increase, yet the coming months could bring even more significant movements as several key factors come into play. Metrics such as the Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss (NUPL) and active addresses suggest that the market is at a pivotal juncture, displaying both strong optimism and cautionary signs.

The anticipation surrounding the approval of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has heightened market volatility, and the actual inflow of institutional funds will likely determine XRP's next major trend trajectory. Traders should brace themselves for a period where both substantial upward surges and considerable corrections remain plausible.

Currently, the NUPL for long-term XRP holders stands at 0.73, placing it firmly within the \"Belief – Denial\" phase of the market cycle. This metric gauges the average unrealized profit among long-term holders. Since March 27, this value has remained consistent, over a month now. Typically, NUPL readings above 0.75 signal \"Euphoria—greed,\" while figures between 0.5 and 0.75 demonstrate faith in further price increases, though with the potential for denial should momentum falter.

The NUPL has climbed from 0.68 three weeks ago to 0.73 today, indicating that long-term XRP holders are experiencing larger theoretical profits. Nevertheless, the market may soon reach a decisive point where either continued growth or a correction becomes evident.

Recent rumors regarding the SEC’s approval of a spot XRP ETF have caused confusion, further intensifying market volatility. In truth, only ProShares' leveraged and short XRP Futures ETFs received approval to commence trading on April 30, with no true spot ETF having been sanctioned yet. Although the approval of these futures products is viewed positively for XRP's long-term credibility, the dissemination of inaccurate information has eroded investor confidence and instigated unwarranted instability.

Regardless, analysts have posited that XRP’s market capitalization might surpass Ethereum’s. Speculation concerning a potential collaboration between XRP and SWIFT has also gained traction over the past month. Some specialists forecast that a future spot ETF could eventually attract up to $100 billion in capital inflows into XRP. However, until such an event occurs, volatility spurred by rumors and miscommunication remains a substantial risk for the asset.

XRP’s 7-day active addresses have plummeted significantly, now at 147,000, compared to their peak of 1.22 million recorded on March 19. This dramatic decrease mirrors a broader cooling-off period following the substantial surge experienced earlier this year.

Tracking active addresses is vital as it provides immediate insights into user engagement, transaction volume, and the overall ecosystem health—reduced address activity frequently indicates diminishing interest, decreased transaction flow, and a weaker basis for sustained price appreciation. Since April 1, XRP’s 7-day active address count has persistently remained under 200,000, reinforcing that user activity has yet to fully recuperate.

While this decline doesn’t necessarily foreshadow an impending major price collapse, it underscores a crucial aspect: robust rallies are typically supported by expanding network participation. Without a notable uptick in active addresses, XRP could find it challenging to sustain momentum or spark a new bullish phase soon.

The final approval of a Spot XRP ETF could act as a pivotal catalyst for the token’s price. It might potentially unlock significant institutional investments. Recently, the world’s inaugural XRP ETF began trading in Brazil. Experts anticipate that, similar to Bitcoin, if real demand follows the approval, XRP’s price could experience a sharp rally. The subsequent major upside target is $3.40, representing a 49% increase from current levels.

This advancement would be propelled by fresh investments, enhanced mainstream acceptance, and a tightened supply as more investors acquire direct exposure via regulated channels.

Conversely, if momentum fails to regain strength and a pronounced downtrend sets in, it could lead to a severe correction. A breach beneath the psychological $2.00 threshold would expose the token to further losses, with the next major support anticipated around $1.61.

Such a development would signify a 29% decline from current prices, reflecting a scenario where optimism concerning ETFs diminishes and selling pressure dominates. In this instance, XRP could remain trapped in a broader consolidation or bearish phase until more potent catalysts emerge.

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