As May 2025 begins, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated renewed momentum, posting gains exceeding 14% over the past 30 days and trading at a price just 6.3% below the critical $100,000 threshold. The underlying on-chain data indicates a positive shift in Bitcoin's apparent demand for the first time since late February, marking a notable change in the network's behavior.

In recent weeks, Bitcoin's apparent demand has rebounded significantly, reaching approximately 65,000 BTC over the past month. This figure represents a substantial recovery from the low point recorded on March 27, when apparent demand dipped to -311,000 BTC, reflecting an environment of intense selling pressure. Apparent demand, which tracks net changes in holdings across various investor groups, serves as a key indicator of whether capital is flowing into or out of the Bitcoin network.

Although the current level of apparent demand remains below the peak levels observed in 2024, a pivotal moment occurred on April 24 when Bitcoin's apparent demand turned positive and has remained so for six consecutive days following nearly two months of continuous outflows. Despite this positive development, the broader momentum of demand remains relatively weak. The persistent absence of significant new inflows suggests that much of the recent accumulation might be attributable to existing holders rather than fresh capital entering the market.

For Bitcoin to sustain a meaningful upward movement, both apparent demand and demand momentum need to exhibit consistent and coordinated growth. Without such alignment, the current stabilization may not support a robust or extended price surge. In particular, the pace of ETF-related inflows remains a critical factor. Purchases from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs have remained relatively stable since late March, oscillating between daily net flows of -5,000 to 3,000 BTC. This activity level contrasts sharply with the robust inflows witnessed in late 2024, when daily purchases regularly surpassed 8,000 BTC, contributing to Bitcoin's initial climb toward $100,000.

Through the first few months of 2025, BTC ETFs have collectively amassed a net total of 28,000 BTC, a figure notably lower than the more than 200,000 BTC accumulated by this time last year. This decline underscores a deceleration in institutional demand, which has historically played a crucial role in driving major price shifts. While there are early indications of a slight uptick in ETF inflows, the current levels are insufficient to ignite a sustained upward trend. ETF activity is commonly regarded as a reflection of institutional confidence, and a marked increase in purchases would likely signal renewed optimism regarding Bitcoin's mid-term outlook.

The recent price increase has positioned Bitcoin just 6.3% below the $100,000 mark, with the potential for further gains toward $110,000. According to Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC, the sentiment is shifting positively once again. She noted that a summer rally toward $150,000 is plausible, emphasizing that the $95,000 range could serve as a launching pad for a decisive breakout above $100,000 in the near future.

Bitcoin's resilience amidst broader macroeconomic volatility and regulatory pressures, including measures introduced by former President Trump, highlights its growing independence from external shocks compared to other digital assets. While the entire cryptocurrency market has been affected, Bitcoin appears to be demonstrating reduced sensitivity to these factors, positioning itself as a potentially more stable asset during uncertain times.

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