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As Bitcoin edges closer to the significant psychological level of $100,000, derivatives traders are carefully monitoring potential signals that could indicate the final phase of its upward movement. These traders are already adjusting their positions in anticipation of what might come next.
Experts Gordon Grant and Joshua Lim from BeInCrypto noted that Bitcoin's progression beyond the $100,000 mark now signifies a long-term investment strategy, contrasting sharply with the speculative trading observed when it first surpassed this level following Trump's electoral win.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin's price was slightly below $98,000. Traders are eagerly awaiting its breakthrough of the $100,000 threshold, which would mark only the second occurrence in cryptocurrency history.
Gordon Grant, a cryptocurrency derivatives trader, remarked that the current push towards six-figure values lacks the euphoric atmosphere present in previous bull runs, such as the one following Trump's victory in the US general election last November. However, he suggested that this lack of exuberance could be beneficial.
Grant explained that a recent sharp decline, known as a \"washout,\" which eliminated weaker participants, paved the way for a stronger recovery. He referred to this subsequent rebound as a \"high-velocity bounce.\"
In Grant's opinion, this sets the stage for Bitcoin to make a more substantial and enduring ascent through the $100,000 barrier, potentially reaching the $110,000 high it achieved around the time of the US presidential inauguration earlier this year.
However, he also emphasized several crucial elements that need to align in the derivatives market for Bitcoin to surge higher.
For Bitcoin to reach unprecedented heights, volatility must remain under control.
Volatility gauges the extent and speed of Bitcoin's price fluctuations. A bullish scenario prefers steady or gradually increasing prices over extreme swings.
According to Grant, traders selling options on Bitcoin volatility are displaying a calmer demeanor compared to the price rally in January.
Grant mentioned that in December, volatility surged due to expectations of a swift rise to $130,000–$150,000. Currently, however, implied volatility has decreased by approximately 10 points during the final 10% of Bitcoin's climb—a rare phenomenon that has penalized traders holding out-of-the-money options betting on major price movements.
This time, the considerable loss of market optimism also plays a part in the current scenario.
Market sentiment has undergone a significant transformation since January. The excitement seen during Trump's election has been supplanted by uncertainty. According to Grant, worsening macroeconomic conditions such as tariff-induced stock sell-offs and heightened caution among traders have contributed to this mood shift across markets.
In essence, the desire to purchase may now stem more from fear than greed.
Joshua Lim, Global Co-Head of Markets at FalconX, concurred with this assessment, pointing out a notable change in the main source of Bitcoin demand.
In other words, earlier enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin's price reaching $100,000 might have been fueled by speculative retail buying. This time, the more consistent and substantial purchasing comes from large companies adopting a long-term Bitcoin holding strategy, akin to the approach taken by Michael Saylor.
The recent establishment of 21 Capital, backed by major entities like Tether and SoftBank, further underscores this shift in motivation.
Consistent institutional buying can also support an increase in Bitcoin's price over time.
With growing momentum from sovereign entities and corporate treasuries, institutional buying may be vital in sustaining Bitcoin's next upward trend.
Grant highlighted that developing nations aiming to distance themselves from a weakening dollar and move towards a more independent asset like Bitcoin could play a pivotal role. Should this occur, it would signal a potentially transformative shift in global monetary policy.
Increased institutional adoption reinforces the notion that Bitcoin now serves as a means to mitigate risks associated with financial systems, such as inflation or currency devaluation.
Meanwhile, more corporations are viewing Bitcoin as a legitimate treasury asset.
Simply put, even large institutions are opting to assume the risk of Bitcoin's price fluctuations as a possible counterbalance to other, potentially greater financial risks.
Despite the excitement surrounding Bitcoin's approach to $100,000, the genuine anticipation lies in its ongoing development as an increasingly permanent fixture in the financial system.
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