Solayer暴跌45%市场分歧加剧未来走势难料

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Following a sudden 45% crash, the cryptocurrency Solayer (LAYER) has experienced a significant reversal in its recent bullish trend. Over the past few months, LAYER had been a standout performer within the altcoin space, surging by 460% from February to early May. However, the token's value plummeted sharply, trading below $1.70 at press time, as market participants scrambled to determine the catalyst behind the abrupt downturn.

The crash led to a substantial reduction in LAYER's market capitalization, losing close to $350 million in value. As volatility surged and the long-to-short ratio climbed to 1.45, the market appeared split between those anticipating a recovery and others preparing for further declines.

Within a single day, LAYER dropped approximately 35%, falling from nearly $3.10 to $1.90. Despite the coin's strong fundamental attributes, including its status as the first hardware-accelerated blockchain designed to offload operations onto programmable chips with a goal of achieving over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) and 100 gigabits per second (Gbps) bandwidth, the sudden plunge has left the community searching for explanations.

Additionally, LAYER provides practical utility through its Solayer Emerald Card, enabling seamless spending of USDC via Visa, with compatibility for Apple Pay and Google Pay.

From February 18 to May 5, LAYER demonstrated impressive growth, becoming one of the top-performing altcoins of the year. The unexpected crash, however, disrupted this momentum.

At present, uncertainty prevails, with various theories circulating among the community. Some argue that market makers initiated a cascade of liquidations, while others suspect the founding team of engaging in questionable activities. Another factor mentioned is the daily release of 110,600 LAYER tokens.

Nevertheless, these daily unlocks equate to only $219,000 in value, insufficient to explain the $250 million-plus loss in market capitalization. Of greater concern is the forthcoming major unlock scheduled for May 11, where 26.5 million LAYER tokens, valued at approximately $51 million, are set to be released. If market sentiment does not improve prior to this event, the additional supply could exacerbate selling pressure and possibly drive the price lower.

Over the previous 24 hours, the long-to-short ratio was 0.78, with 56.14% of traders holding short positions, indicating growing bearish sentiment. Approximately $3.2 million in long liquidations were executed, surpassing the $1.5 million in short liquidations. This forced selling likely expedited the decline from $3.10 to $1.90, as liquidation cascades intensified the downward pressure.

With the May 11 token unlock approaching, the unwinding of leveraged positions emerged as a critical factor contributing to the crash. Although the long-to-short ratio has since shifted to 1.45, signaling that more traders are positioning for a rebound, the lack of order book depth remains a concern. Such conditions can sustain heightened price volatility irrespective of sentiment turning bullish.

LAYER's outlook remains highly uncertain as its price struggles to stabilize above $1.90 following a steep decline. Traders and investors continue to seek clarity regarding the crash's underlying cause, with sentiment remaining fragile leading up to the May 11 token unlock.

In this scenario, the current long-to-short ratio of 1.45 highlights a notable shift, with more traders now betting on a rebound, as 59.2% of positions are long compared to 40.8% short. This increasing long bias might imply that some believe the worst is behind them, particularly after the aggressive sell-off.

Nonetheless, this shift carries new risks: should LAYER fail to recover and continue declining, these recently opened long positions could face liquidation similar to prior instances, potentially sparking another round of forced selling.

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