The cryptocurrency market is bracing for potential significant price movements as over $3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today. This event, marked by the expiration of substantial contracts, has drawn attention to the possibility of heightened market volatility.

Deribit's data indicates that approximately $2.65 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire today. The maximum pain point for these options stands at $94,000, accompanied by a put-to-call ratio of 1.05. This expiration involves 25,925 contracts, which is slightly fewer compared to the previous week's 26,949 contracts.

Similarly, Ethereum is witnessing the expiration of 164,591 contracts, a decrease from last week's open interest of 184,296 contracts. These expiring Ethereum contracts hold a notional value of $364.06 million, with a maximum pain point at $1,850 and a put-to-call ratio of 1.43.

Analysts at Greeks.live have noted a predominantly bearish market sentiment based on the fact that sales of Bitcoin and Ethereum exceed purchase calls. For Bitcoin, this sentiment is further highlighted by its max Pain level being significantly below its current price of $102,570. According to the Max Pain theory, asset prices tend to gravitate toward these strike prices as options approach expiration.

Greeks.live analysts also observe that some traders are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price range between $93,000 and $99,000. There is a perceived lack of excitement regarding Bitcoin surpassing the $100,000 threshold.

Moreover, both Bitcoin and Ethereum show put-to-call ratios above one, indicating more Put options (bearish bets) than Call options (bullish bets). This suggests that a greater number of traders anticipate a decline in price.

The histograms provided support this view. The BTC open interest chart reveals a notable concentration of option contracts at strike prices below Bitcoin's current price of $102,570, particularly between $93,000 and $100,000. This clustering of option contracts at lower strikes reflects traders' positioning for a possible price drop, contributing to the bearish skew.

This situation arises amidst expectations of a volatile weekend, which could impact Bitcoin’s upward momentum. As reported by BeInCrypto, representatives from China and the U.S. are scheduled to meet in Switzerland over the weekend for trade discussions.

Nevertheless, apprehensions persist regarding the potential breakdown of these tariff talks. This meeting marks the first official trade talks since President Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the U.S. does not aim to decouple. Conversely, the Chinese Embassy in Washington announced on Thursday that it will not tolerate any attempts to pressure or coerce China. China remains committed to protecting its legitimate interests and maintaining international fairness and justice. General sentiment suggests that Beijing harbors deep skepticism towards U.S. intentions.

Given the absence of concrete concessions from either side prior to the meeting, cryptocurrency traders worry that the summit might culminate in another diplomatic deadlock.

In light of this context, any indication of escalation could serve as a catalyst for volatility, disrupting Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Conversely, a favorable outcome from the meeting could bolster Bitcoin, similar to when Trump announced a major deal with the UK.

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