Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) experienced a significant increase of over 12% following a cryptic tweet from Elon Musk, which reignited speculation within the cryptocurrency market. Although the tweet did not explicitly reference the token, it was quickly interpreted by traders and meme investors as a potential signal for movement in the price of PNUT. This led to a surge in buying activity, with many participants attempting to capitalize on the perceived opportunity. However, underlying on-chain data tells a different story, suggesting that the price movement was driven more by early investors rather than retail traders.

The first signs of increased activity occurred prior to the tweet, rather than after it. On July 8, exchange netflows for PNUT turned positive, with $1.54 million worth of tokens moving onto exchanges. This movement is often seen as an indicator that traders are positioning themselves for a potential sell-off. The price then reached its peak hours later, at $0.2398, up from $0.2136. Shortly after, outflows spiked again, with nearly $920,000 in tokens being withdrawn from exchanges. This pattern suggests that early investors were moving in before the public became aware of the news, while retail traders likely bought at the top and sold later.

For several days leading up to the event, the funding rate for PNUT remained negative, indicating that more traders were betting on a price decline. However, following Musk’s tweet on July 8, the funding rate shifted closer to zero, reaching -0.0074% on July 9. This change suggests that some traders began opening long positions, anticipating a rise in the price. Nevertheless, the negative funding rate still indicates a lack of full confidence, as these traders may be testing the trend rather than committing fully to a bullish outlook. This shift reflects growing interest but does not yet signal a strong upward trend.

Funding rates represent the fees exchanged between long and short traders. When the rate is negative, it means that short traders are dominant in the market. A positive rate, on the other hand, indicates that long traders are in control.

Using Fibonacci retracement levels based on the previous swing low to high between July 3, the price of PNUT retested the 0.382 level at $0.2386 after briefly surpassing it. This level, along with $0.245 and $0.256, is considered a key resistance area. Currently, the price of PNUT is near $0.22 and has struggled to regain the bullish trend. If the price can cleanly reclaim the $0.245 level, a move toward $0.256 becomes possible. However, if the price drops below $0.216, which is both a key trendline and the 0.786 Fibonacci level, it would break the bullish structure and push the price lower than the long-term ascending trendline. This scenario would shift the short-term market bias to bearish.

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