Solana (SOL) has experienced a significant increase of nearly 25% over the past week, driven by a broader cryptocurrency market rally that has revived positive sentiment among major alternative coins. The price of SOL is now reaching levels that were last observed in February, which has drawn renewed attention from traders and investors. However, on-chain data indicates that not all market participants are convinced that this upward movement will continue. What does this mean for the altcoin in the short term?

According to Glassnode, the Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss (NUPL) metric for SOL places the market in the “Optimism–Anxiety” zone. The NUPL metric evaluates the difference between the total unrealized profits and losses of all holders relative to the asset’s market capitalization. It provides insight into whether the market, on average, is experiencing gains or losses.

The market is considered to be in an optimism–anxiety phase when most investors are holding modest profits. They remain hopeful about future price movements but are not fully confident that a sustained upward trend is in place.

Over the past week, SOL has recorded double-digit gains and is currently trading at $198.43, approaching the psychologically important $206 level, which was last seen in February. Some investors are maintaining their positions in anticipation of a decisive breakout above $206, while others remain skeptical about whether this key resistance level will be overcome. This uncertainty is beginning to manifest in market behavior, as reflected in daily chart data.

Despite the sharp price increase and higher on-chain activity, the BBTrend indicator for SOL suggests ongoing mild selling pressure. Over the past three days, the momentum indicator has shown red histogram bars, with their sizes gradually increasing, indicating a rise in selling pressure.

The BBTrend measures the strength and direction of a trend based on the expansion and contraction of Bollinger Bands. When it displays red bars, the asset's price consistently closes near the lower Bollinger Band, signaling sustained selling pressure and suggesting the possibility of further downward movement.

This implies that even as bullish sentiment increases, a portion of the SOL market is starting to take profits, which could be an early indication of weakening confidence.

The $206 resistance level is now a critical point for SOL. If buying pressure intensifies and SOL manages to break above this threshold, it could transform into a strong support area, potentially leading to a rally toward $219.97. However, if selling activity increases, SOL may lose some of its recent gains, causing the price to retreat toward the $183.75 support level.

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