Pi Coin has maintained a stable price around $0.47 following the announcement of the “Buy Pi” fiat on-ramp, which previously pushed the price up to $0.52, marking the first significant upward movement in several days. This recent increase suggests a potential shift in market sentiment and could indicate a more sustained trend. Two technical indicators on lower timeframes suggest that this movement may not be a temporary bounce. Specifically, the trend strength has returned, and a second moving average crossover is approaching, which could signal further momentum.

On the 4-hour chart, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen above 30, indicating that the current price movement is supported by a strong trend rather than just speculative activity. The ADX measures the strength of a trend on a scale from 0 to 100, but it does not indicate direction, so it must be analyzed alongside price action. However, the current peak of the ADX is lower than the previous one, suggesting that while there is a trend in place, it has not yet surpassed the strength of the prior swing. A new ADX high or at least maintaining the index above the mid-20s would provide greater confidence in the continuation of the upward movement.

The 4-hour timeframe is given priority in this analysis because the recent price surge occurred within a single day, and signals on this timeframe typically appear before they are reflected on the daily chart. The fast (20-period) Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has already crossed above the medium (50-period) EMA, aligning with the price movement from $0.45 to $0.52. A similar crossover occurred in late June when the price moved from approximately $0.56 to $0.66. At that time, the fast EMA failed to cross above the slower (100-period) EMA, leading to a decline in the price. The second crossover is now approaching again, almost poised to occur.

If this crossover happens while the ADX remains strong, the likelihood of a more substantial rally in Pi Coin’s price increases. Additionally, the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart was briefly crossed by the price yesterday before encountering resistance. A clean close above this level would align the price structure with the prevailing momentum. EMAs give more weight to recent prices, so when the shorter-term EMAs rise above the longer-term ones, it indicates an acceleration in the price movement.

On the daily chart, key levels are determined using a trend-based Fibonacci extension. This tool connects three points: the late-June low at $0.47, the swing high near $0.66, and the mid-July pullback to $0.42. Tuesday’s candle managed to break through three Fibonacci levels in a single day—0.236 at $0.46, 0.382 at $0.49, and 0.5 at $0.51. As a result, Pi Coin’s price is currently pausing within the $0.46 to $0.49 range.

A daily close above this range would open the next Fibonacci level at $0.54 (0.618), followed by the previous swing high at $0.66, which represents roughly a 40% increase from current levels if the momentum continues and the long-awaited EMA crossover eventually occurs. An inverted bullish hammer pattern formed on the rebound, as indicated by Tuesday’s candle, showing that buyers entered the market near the lows.

The key invalidation levels for this scenario include a close below $0.46, a drop in the ADX below the mid-20s, and the failure of the 20-period EMA to cross above the 100-period EMA. If these conditions are met, Pi Coin’s price could retreat toward $0.42.

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