Hedera (HBAR) has experienced sustained downward pressure throughout late August, with the losing streak continuing into September. On a monthly basis, the price of HBAR has declined by 8.8%, maintaining a downward trend that has been in place since mid-August. This correction follows a significant rally earlier in the year, during which HBAR surged more than 350%, a period of strong momentum that now appears to be a distant memory. Despite the ongoing decline, some major holders have started quietly increasing their positions, suggesting that not all market participants are pessimistic about the asset’s future. However, technical indicators point to a need for caution.

On-chain data indicates that large investors, often referred to as whales, have been steadily accumulating HBAR tokens even as the price continues to decline. Over the past week, two key groups — wallets holding at least one million HBAR and those holding ten million HBAR — have significantly increased their balances. The group holding at least one million HBAR saw an increase from 84.33 to 86.30 accounts, representing an addition of at least 1.97 million tokens. At the current price of $0.226 per token, this amount is valued at approximately $445,000. Meanwhile, the group holding at least ten million HBAR grew from 108.62 to 113.45 accounts, indicating an increase of at least 48.3 million tokens, worth roughly $10.92 million.

In total, whales have acquired more than 50 million HBAR tokens over the past week, with the value of these holdings reaching nearly $11.36 million. This continued buying activity suggests that institutional investors remain committed to HBAR despite the month-long decline in its price. However, it is important to note that whale accumulation does not always lead to immediate price increases. Retail traders, who often influence short-term price movements, may still be selling off their holdings. This dynamic is where technical indicators, such as RSI divergence, provide valuable insights.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used momentum oscillator that helps identify whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Divergences between price action and RSI readings can serve as early warning signals for potential trend reversals. In the case of HBAR, the 4-hour chart shows a hidden bearish divergence: while the price has made lower highs, the RSI has recorded higher highs. This pattern typically indicates that selling pressure remains dominant, even if momentum indicators suggest otherwise.

This divergence highlights the possibility that the underlying trend for HBAR could continue to weaken, especially if retail selling pressure outweighs the buying activity of whales. It suggests that although some large investors may still hold optimism following HBAR’s strong performance earlier in the year, the near-term momentum remains fragile.

Looking at the daily price chart of HBAR, several key levels will play a critical role in determining the asset’s direction in the coming days. The immediate support level to watch is at $0.219. A decisive close below this level would signal further downside risk and confirm the continuation of the month-long downtrend. On the upside, a recovery above $0.240 could help reduce the bearish bias, while a sustained move above $0.260 would indicate a full reversal of the current trend. Until these levels are broken, the overall structure of the price movement remains vulnerable to further declines.

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